The telecom operator is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results for the 2024-25 fiscal year (Q4FY25) on 13 May.
Airtel’s consolidated revenue from operations is projected to grow 31% year-on-year (YoY) and 9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to ₹49,200 crore, according to average estimates from five brokerage firms. This growth is attributed to subscriber additions, the full consolidation of Indus Towers, and strong performance from its core India and Airtel Africa businesses.
Indus Towers has been accounted as a subsidiary of Bharti Airtel since 19 November 2024, shifting from its previous status as an associate company.
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“We expect 4Q revenues to be impacted by Bharti exiting low margin commodity wholesale voice business, partly offset by the full 3 months consolidation of Indus Towers revenues,” analysts at BofA Securities in a note dated 7 April. The enterprise business, contributing 13% of Airtel’s revenue, is expected to experience a decline during the quarter.
While the enterprise segment faces headwinds, Airtel’s underlying business drivers are expected to remain strong. India’s cellular revenues are projected to increase by 2.5% sequentially, reaching ₹26,269 crore, with this segment contributing 58% to Airtel’s overall revenue, according to the brokerage firm.
For the January-March quarter, Airtel is expected to report a 167% YoY increase in net profit to ₹5,531 crore. However, sequentially, net profit is expected to decline by 63%, primarily due to a high base of last quarter on the back of extraordinary gain from the consolidation of Indus Towers.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) is projected to grow 39% YoY and 9.4% QoQ to ₹26,917 crore. However, “Ebitda margin is expected to decline by 184 bps (basis points) QoQ to 52.7% as Q3FY25 had certain one-off revenue related to writeback in Indus Towers,” analysts at Centrum said.
Bharti Airtel’s average revenue per user (Arpu), a key performance metric, is expected to remain flat sequentially at ₹245, according to estimates from six brokerage firms.
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“The uptick in Arpu will be modest in 4Q on account of lower number of days,” analysts at brokerage house Nomura said. A flat Arpu also shows the ebbing of the impact of the tariff hike taken by the telecom operators in July last year.
“Arpu drivers on an underlying basis remain intact; these are basically feature phone to smartphone upgrades, pre-paid to post-paid upgrades, data monetization, and growth of international roaming,” Gopal Vittal, vice chairman and managing director of Bharti Airtel had said during an analyst call in February.
During the quarter under review, Airtel is estimated to have added 3 million users, bringing its total mobile subscriber base in India to approximately 360 million. This follows a stronger subscriber addition of 4.9 million in the preceding quarter.
“We expect higher dividend pay-out in FY25 vs FY24, outlook for capex numbers in FY26 to be lower than FY25 and reaffirmation of balancing capital allocation towards lowering debt and paying back to shareholders,” said brokerage firm Morgan Stanley in a note dated 7 April.
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On the earnings call scheduled for 14 May, analysts and investors will closely scrutinize Bharti Airtel’s guidance on key issues, including its equity conversion proposal with the government, spectrum trading with Adani, future tariff hikes, and dividend plans.
