While investors chase the latest fads—tech stocks, crypto, real estate booms—gold has quietly delivered, quarter after quarter. Driven by tariff tensions, stubborn inflation, and mounting global uncertainty, the yellow metal has had a spectacular run in recent times. But this isn’t just a short-term rally. Over the long haul, gold has outperformed some of the biggest names in the investing world.
According to Aequitas Investments, gold has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nifty 50 over the past 25 years—not to mention fixed income instruments and even real estate.
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Consider the numbers: since 2000, gold has grown nearly 10x in dollar terms, while the S&P 500 has returned around 4.5x. In rupee terms, gold has surged approximately 20x against the Sensex’s about 16x. Over the last 15 years, gold has delivered around 12% in annual returns versus the Sensex’s 10–11%.
So, is gold the greatest asset of our lifetimes? The answer might just be yes.
Gold: The silent outperformer
Gold thrives in times of uncertainty—think pandemics, inflation spikes, financial crises. It’s a reliable hedge in turbulent times. And yet, it’s rarely seen as exciting.
Unlike stocks that represent companies with earnings and dividends, gold has no intrinsic cash flow. That, coupled with its traditional image, makes it feel old-school. It doesn’t make headlines like crypto or carry the aspirational allure of real estate. In mainstream culture, wealth creation is usually associated with mutual funds, stocks, or property. Gold? Boring.
There’s also friction when it comes to owning gold.
Physical gold remains the most common option, but it’s not always efficient or affordable thanks to making charges, storage concerns, and liquidity issues. Meanwhile, central banks around the world are among the largest buyers and sellers of gold—yet the average investor hears a lot more about SIPs than sovereign reserves.
Put simply, gold has a bit of a PR problem.
What’s next for gold?
Gold is now trading near ₹90,000 per 10 grams, while the Sensex is around the 76,000 mark. A common rule of thumb is that when the Sensex-to-gold ratio falls below 1, equities tend to outperform over the next two to three years. The ratio currently stands at around 0.84, which could indicate limited near-term upside for gold.
Read this | Soaring gold prices put government in a pickle over upcoming bond payouts
Still, the macro environment could tell a different story. Trade tensions, geopolitical shifts, and economic instability could continue to support gold prices. And over the longer term, the case for gold remains strong.
Why? Because the world is entering a new era of structural uncertainty. We’re headed toward a multipolar world order—an America-led alliance, a China-led one, and a set of non-aligned players. Globalization is no longer seamless. Tariffs, localization, and fractured supply chains are becoming the new normal. Add to that the unpredictable impact of artificial intelligence on jobs and industries, and you have the makings of a deeply volatile future.
In such a world, gold’s long-term growth story is far from over.
A prudent bet for retail investors
Traditionally, gold has been viewed as a hedge or diversification tool. But going forward, it could also be a source of real growth in a portfolio.
Retail investors would do well to allocate 10–15% of their portfolio to gold—not for immediate returns, but as a long-term strategic play. More than 15%? Probably not. Gold still doesn’t generate income, and overexposure could drag on portfolio growth.
Also read | Mint Explainer: Why did the govt end the gold monetization scheme?
In the meantime, maybe it’s time gold hired some influencers to dance to its tune. A little sparkle on social media wouldn’t hurt its image. Who knows? Perhaps we need an ad campaign with the tagline: “Gold accha hai.”
Sandeep Das is the founder and managing director of Building Leaders for Tomorrow, and the author of How Business Storytelling Works.
