Yankees and Orioles are still talented, but the race at the top could be tighter

Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are gone from the division, and although the Yankees and Orioles can certainly succeed without them, the AL East seems noticeably tougher to predict this year.

In 2023, Baltimore and Tampa Bay won 101 and 99 games, with the rest of the division another 10 games behind. Last year, New York and Baltimore won 94 and 91, and it was again another 10 games back to third place. It would not be a surprise if the top teams were a lot more bunched together this season, and you can make a case for any number of outcomes for the order of finish.

That said, the Yankees and Orioles still have the two best players in the division in Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson, and as much as those teams might have questions on the mound, so does everyone else.

How they project

1. New York Yankees. The Yankees entered last season without Gerrit Cole and still ended up winning the division. This year Cole’s injury is even more serious, but New York added left-hander Max Fried in the offseason. That’s the question for the Yankees: Did their series of offseason additions — Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams, to name a few — make up for the loss of Soto to free agency and now Cole to a season-ending injury? There’s plenty that can go wrong, as a spring full of injuries has shown, but Judge is still in his prime and Fried was one of the top pitchers on the market. New York still has to be taken seriously.

2. Baltimore Orioles. It was a fairly boring offseason in Baltimore, so it’s easy to forget what an exciting young core this team still has. Henderson emerged as an MVP candidate last year, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser blossomed — and there is still more offensive upside if Adley Rutschman rebounds from a poor second half and Jackson Holliday performs better in his second season. Baltimore may need that hitting improvement because with Burnes in Arizona now — and with Grayson Rodriguez already injured — the pitching staff is a real question mark. The return of closer Félix Bautista, who missed all of 2024, brings some extra upside to the bullpen.

3. Boston Red Sox. While the Yankees and Orioles lost significant stars this offseason, Boston added one in third baseman Alex Bregman. The Red Sox also acquired left-hander Garrett Crochet and righty Walker Buehler. Boston has gone three years without finishing above .500, the first time that’s happened since 1992-94. Now the Red Sox look ready to contend for a playoff spot again, but Bregman’s arrival — and Rafael Devers potentially becoming a designated hitter — doesn’t necessarily solve Boston’s issues in the middle infield. There’s reason to believe the Red Sox are moving in the right direction, but manager Alex Cora has some tricky decisions to make.

4. Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are always a threat to outpace expectations, but last year their outlook seemed iffy after they traded Tyler Glasnow, and sure enough their win total dropped from 99 to 80. It was their first season under .500 since 2017. Shane McClanahan returns to the mound after Tommy John surgery, but it’s the offense that is the big concern here. With Tampa Bay playing this season in a spring training facility because of hurricane damage — and the team withdrawing recently from a new ballpark project — suffice it to say the vibes aren’t great.

5. Toronto Blue Jays. In the midst of a disappointing 74-win campaign in 2024, the Blue Jays were sellers at the trade deadline — to a degree. They still kept offensive standouts Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — due to become free agents after this season — and then added slugging outfielder Anthony Santander in the offseason. Still, the clock is ticking in Toronto. The Blue Jays have eschewed a real rebuild so far, but a poor start could make this year’s deadline a lot more seismic in Toronto.

The next generation

Believe it or not, Baltimore’s prospect pipeline still hasn’t run dry, with catcher Samuel Basallo and infielder Coby Mayo ranked in the top 15 by MLB Pipeline. Boston could have even more to be excited about with outfielder Roman Anthony (No. 2), utilityman Kristian Campbell (No. 7) and shortstop Marcelo Mayer (No. 12).

A step back

The division as a whole slipped in 2024, with the five teams averaging 84 wins. That number was 89.8 in 2023 and 87.6 in 2022. Even in 2021, the AL East averaged 85.4 wins despite Baltimore only contributing 52. Last season was the first time since 2017 that the AL East did not have at least three teams above .500.

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